“Over the years we’ve invested significantly in our field data team - focusing on producing trusted ratings. While this ensures the accuracy of our Ratings, it doesn’t allow the scale across the thousands of projects that buyers are considering.”
For more information on carbon credit procurement trends, read our "Key Takeaways for 2025" article. We share five, data-backed tips to improve your procurement strategy.
One more thing: Connect to Supply customers also get access to the rest of Sylvera's tools. That means you can easily see project ratings and evaluate an individual project's strengths, procure quality carbon credits, and even monitor project activity (particularly if you’ve invested at the pre-issuance stage.)
Book a free demo of Sylvera to see our platform's procurement and reporting features in action.
As Brazil hosts COP30, the country's carbon market is in the spotlight. This analysis examines Brazil's regulatory developments, risk profile, Article 6 readiness, and the key market trends shaping the country's carbon landscape.
Brazil’s developments ahead of COP
With COP30 in mind, Brazil is accelerating efforts to develop its carbon regulatory landscape. The decision to house the provisional SBCE secretariat within the MoF underscores momentum but also raises concerns: operating without a dedicated budget or institutional independence may constrain its effectiveness and impact key decisions such as sectoral coverage under the SBCE.
Follow our dedicated COP30 Hub to keep up to date with all the news relevant to carbon markets, with insights from our team on the ground in Belem.
In contrast, the creation of the Department of Market Instruments and REDD+ (Dimer) marks a significant step toward operationalizing Brazil’s participation in Article 6, offering long-awaited clarity for interested project developers, buyers, and investors. Developing carbon institutions with clear mandates is a foundational step in creating an enabling environment for investment, providing market predictability and greater confidence.
Together, these developments signal Brazil’s growing commitment to expand its carbon market. For more on Host Country Article 6 readiness, see our recent whitepaper.
Brazil’s carbon credit markets: An overview
In December 2024, Brazil passed the awaited carbon regulation (Law 15042/2024), officially establishing its national Emission Trading System (SBCE for its Portuguese acronym). The SBCE is expected to allow the use of domestic carbon credits (qualitative/quantitative requirements apply) for compliance purposes.
Due to the links of the system with the VCM and Article 6, the Law includes some provisions for these markets and will rule key aspects related to the carbon project development in the country. The Law brings regulatory certainty to carbon investors and buyers, which is especially important for REDD+ activities in Indigenous lands.
The Law suggests that only carbon credits from nationally accredited methodologies will be granted authorization and corresponding adjustment (CA), posing some risks for those interested in adjusted credits.
Also, for carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects, Brazil has introduced a new regulation that provides clarity but also introduces approval requirements that may contribute to risks.
Brazil’s carbon credit delivery risk analysis
Brazil presents a medium delivery risk marked by a new supportive carbon regulation on the one hand, and the lack of clear infrastructure and institutions on the other. The country’s extensive experience hosting carbon projects is reflected in the law, which covers essential aspects of carbon development.
The law positions Brazil as a robust host country that does not intervene in the VCM but wants to oversee the carbon projects it hosts. However, its weak government effectiveness can also threaten and delay the implementation of this law and lead to risks for buyers and investors.
Brazil’s reputational risk analysis
Brazil presents a medium reputational risk. On the one hand, the country has been recognized for its efforts toward improving human and Indigenous Peoples and Local Communities (IPLCs) rights protection.
On the other hand, carbon projects in Brazil have been subject to media criticism and the country’s governance reputation remains below average. Thus, it is important to undertake thorough due diligence and invest in high-quality projects whose environmental integrity can counterbalance risks arising from the country’s governance reputation.
Brazil’s Article 6 readiness
Brazil’s Article 6 readiness is moderate, marked by a lack of institutional and infrastructural capacity to issue Letters of Authorization (LoAs) and report Corresponding Adjustments (CAs). The country has not defined a positive list of activities nor signed any Article 6.2 agreements with buyers.
Brazil’s recently passed Law 15042/2024 recognizes Article 6.2 participation and defers key processes to further regulation, which may provide the momentum to address the identified gaps.
On Article 6.4, the country has made relatively more progress, having submitted a Designated National Authority (DNA) and a participation form with a positive list of activities under the Paris Agreement Crediting Mechanism (PACM).
Brazil has hosted many projects under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), some have requested transition to the PACM and are pending approval.
Brazil carbon credit market: Headline numbers
Estimated carbon credit supply: 273.9 million
Retired carbon credits to date: 103.5 million
Issuing projects: 84
Sylvera-rated projects: 44
Average Sylvera Rating: B
Brazil carbon credit prices
Brazil's carbon credit market shows stark price differentiation across project types, reflecting varying perceptions of quality and risk.
ARR (Afforestation, Reforestation and Revegetation) projects in Brazil average $38.67 per credit.
REDD+ (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation) projects average $5.54.
Landfill methane projects average $6.02.
Carbon credit rating to price premiums
Diving deeper into the REDD+ project type specifically, rating quality directly correlates with pricing power:
Brazilian REDD+ projects rated BBB achieve an average price of $9.44
BB-rated REDD+ projects average $5.56
B-rated REDD+ projects average $4.00
Brazil carbon credit retirement breakdown
Carbon credit project types
In terms of Brazil carbon credit retirements in 2025, the breakdown by project type reflect the country’s unique geological characteristics:
Forestry and land use leads at 48%
Followed by waste management at 27%
Renewable energy is at 25%
Within these categories, REDD+ projects (forestry) represent 46% of all retirements, with landfill methane at 26% and hydropower at 16%.
Eligibility
A notable trend is the rise in CORSIA-eligible retirements. Credits eligible (subject to host country authorization) for CORSIA’s first phase now represent 23% of retirements, up from 7% in 2024. This signals growing alignment with compliance obligations.
Retirements by registry
Verra dominates the registry landscape with 75% of retirements, while Gold Standard accounts for most of the remainder at 24%.
Brazil carbon credit issuance breakdown
Carbon credit project types
In terms of projects issued in Brazil in 2025, the project type breakdown shows:
Forestry and land use at 47%
Waste management at 29%
Household and community projects are emerging at 22% (a category more prominent in issuances than retirements, suggesting growing pipeline activity in this sector).
And renewable energy at 21%
At the project type level, REDD+ remains dominant at 45%, landfill methane is second at 29%, and hydropower stands third at 13%.
Eligibility
28% of newly issued credits qualify for CORSIA's first phase (subject to host country authorization).
Issuances by registry
Verra maintains its leading position at 70% of issuances, with Gold Standard at 30%.
Brazil’s carbon credit market: Buying patterns
The global buyer interest in Brazilian carbon credits spans multiple industries, with international corporations and domestic Brazilian companies actively buying in the market.
Top 10 buyers of Brazil-based carbon credits
Top 10 Brazil-based buyers (Projects not just from Brazil)
Among Brazilian companies themselves, purchasing strategies reflect their core business models and sustainability priorities:
Natura Cosméticos, a major Brazilian consumer goods and retail operator and largest Brazilian carbon credit retiree in 2025, takes a balanced approach with its portfolio split evenly between REDD+ and renewable energy credits - demonstrating a diversification strategy that addresses both forest protection and clean energy transitions.
Petrobras, Brazil's energy giant, ranks second, focusing exclusively on forestry and land use projects, with 100% of its purchases going to REDD+ credits. This concentration suggests a strategic priority on nature-based solutions, potentially driven by both reputational considerations in addressing oil and gas operations and the competitive pricing of REDD+ credits.
Localiza Rent a Car ranks third and heavily weights renewable energy at 90.2% of its portfolio, with only 9.8% in REDD+ projects. This emphasis on renewable energy credits aligns logically with the company's automotive and mobility business, where energy transition and vehicle electrification represent core sustainability challenges.
Stay in the know ahead of COP30
Follow our dedicated COP30 Hub to keep up to date with all the news relevant to carbon markets, with insights from our team on the ground in Belem.
--
Data has been sourced from Sylvera’s Market Intelligence suite, featuring over 20,000 price estimates across 19 registries and 39,000 retirees.
Market Intelligence includes retirements and issuances between 1st January and 31st October 2025. The data is aggregated across major registries in the voluntary carbon market, including Verra, Gold Standard, American Carbon Registry, Climate Action Reserve, Puro, EcoRegistry, and BioCarbon Standard.
%20(1).png)
.png)
.png)
