From Volume to Value: Colombia's Long-Term Carbon Opportunity

Capital has already placed a long-term bet on carbon. In 2025, US$12.3 billion in forward offtake contracts were announced, most locked in for a decade or more, at prices well above the spot market. High-integrity removals have been in deficit for three consecutive years, while unrated supply remains in surplus. The signal is clear: volume no longer buys confidence, and price no longer tracks volume.

For buyers, that means quality and delivery confidence at a price that reflects real risk, rather than a discount for uncertainty. For developers, it means access to financing that rewards a well-documented, high-integrity project with the price it deserves, rather than the price of an undifferentiated commodity.

In Colombia, this shift is unfolding as the country builds out its own carbon market framework. A national carbon tax, in place since 2017, already lets regulated entities meet part of their obligation with verified credits. Alongside it, Colombia is standing up the Programa Nacional de Cupos Transables de Emisión (PNCTE), its national emissions trading system, with regulation advancing in 2026 and full operation mandated for 2030. The panel will examine how these institutions, rules, and market mechanisms can establish integrity as the standard, and what that means, in practice, for those who buy, develop, and finance carbon credits in Colombia.

The market has stopped paying for volume. The strategic question is how developers and buyers position themselves to move Colombia's market forward on value.

In this session, we discuss

• Where long-term value is accruing in the carbon market, and why quality now sets the price
• How Colombia's regulatory framework (the carbon tax, the domestic offsetting mechanism, and the PNCTE) reshapes demand for high-integrity credits
• What buyers, developers, and financiers should do now to secure value as compliance demand builds

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