“Over the years we’ve invested significantly in our field data team - focusing on producing trusted ratings. While this ensures the accuracy of our Ratings, it doesn’t allow the scale across the thousands of projects that buyers are considering.”
For more information on carbon credit procurement trends, read our "Key Takeaways for 2025" article. We share five, data-backed tips to improve your procurement strategy.
One more thing: Connect to Supply customers also get access to the rest of Sylvera's tools. That means you can easily see project ratings and evaluate an individual project's strengths, procure quality carbon credits, and even monitor project activity (particularly if you’ve invested at the pre-issuance stage.)
Book a free demo of Sylvera to see our platform's procurement and reporting features in action.
While growing rapidly, the carbon dioxide removal (CDR) remains challenging to navigate for both buyers and developers.
In a recent webinar, we brought together perspectives from Sylvera, CNaught, and Sirona Technologies to explore the complex dynamics shaping the market, while discussing actionable paths forward.
Speakers:
- Annalise Downey, Head of Climate Consulting, Sylvera
- Rachel Engstrand, Head of Science, CNaught
- Thoralf Gutierrez , CEO, Sirona Technologies
- Divya Krishnan, Sales Engineer, Sylvera
Did you miss the webinar? You can watch the recording on-demand here.
Why are buyers and developers still struggling to align on CDR prices?
The fundamental tension in today's CDR market centers on misaligned expectations. Buyers seek lower prices than what developers consider their break-even point, creating a gap that threatens market development.
It reflects deeper uncertainties about delivery risk, credit quality, and long-term viability of early-stage technologies.
Buyers are increasingly focused on actual delivery rather than future promises. This scarcity of proven delivery creates a challenging environment where developers must demonstrate credibility - while buyers struggle to assess which projects will actually scale.
Does its technology complexity make CDR hard to navigate?
The durable CDR landscape covers extremely diverse technologies - direct air capture (DAC), biochar, enhanced rock weathering, bio-oil injection, and more. Each requires specialized knowledge to evaluate properly.
This complexity creates significant barriers:
- You may understand biochar well, but that doesn't prepare you for evaluating rock weathering
- Ratings agencies are still building what’s needed to truly assess some of the different technologies
- Nobody wants to wait months for project reviews, but thorough evaluation takes time
This knowledge gap is compounded by inconsistent data disclosure practices. The lack of standardization slows deal-making and prevents efficient market scaling, creating time-intensive due diligence processes for buyers and repeated information requests for developers.
What do buyers really want right now?
When considering CDR purchases, corporate buyers want compelling narratives that align with their brand values and stakeholder expectations.
For example, companies transitioning from nature-based solutions often ask about co-benefits, seeking familiar frameworks to justify their investments.
The storytelling challenge varies by technology:
- Bio-oil injection: Less obvious community involvement compared to forest projects
- DAC projects in developed countries: Limited co-benefits beyond job creation
- Projects in developing markets: Stronger narratives around economic development and technology transfer
For example, Sirona's deployment in Kenya illustrates how location strategy can enhance storytelling potential. By operating in a developing market, they create narratives around job creation and technology transfer that resonate with buyers accustomed to supporting community development through carbon credits.
Can intermediaries solve the market’s challenges to entry?
Trusted intermediaries, like CNaught, play crucial roles in reducing market friction. They provide several key benefits:
For small buyers:
- Access to projects they couldn't purchase from directly
- Professional curation and due diligence services
- Risk mitigation through delivery guarantees and insurance
For the broader market:
- Aggregation of demand from buyers too small to interest developers individually
- Standardization of assessment processes
- Reduction in transaction costs
However, intermediaries alone cannot solve the market's structural challenges. The concentration of demand among a few major buyers - primarily Microsoft, Google, and Frontier - creates systemic risk. For any market to thrive, it needs to have a much more diverse customer base.
What's actually preventing gigaton-scale CDR?
The path to gigaton-scale requires coordination across multiple dimensions simultaneously.
Policy and regulation challenges:
- SBTI guidelines on removals could accelerate or slow market development depending on implementation
- EU emissions trading inclusion must avoid mixing cheaper reductions with removals
- Need for sustained government financial and policy support beyond corporate demand
Market structure Issues:
- Demand concentration among few buyers creates vulnerability
- Price expectations remain misaligned with development costs
- Over-indexing on CDR while scaling down other necessary climate solutions
Coordination requirements:
- Regulations, supply development, financing, and buyer demand must align simultaneously
- Technology iteration and learning curves need patience while maintaining climate urgency
How do we handle changing standards in long-term deals?
Long-term offtake agreements—essential for project financing—introduce "goalpost risk" as best practices evolve.
The recent shift toward requiring upfront accounting of embodied emissions in DAC projects, for example, shows how changing standards can affect project economics.
The challenge:
- Standards will continue evolving as science advances
- Long-term contracts need flexibility for changing requirements
- Both parties need protection against unexpected standard shifts
The solution approach:
- Frame standard evolution as partnerships rather than contract violations
- Build adaptation mechanisms into agreements upfront
- Acknowledge that strengthening standards benefits long-term market health
What should participants be doing right now?
Developers:
- Be transparent about delivery schedules and expected volumes
- Develop compelling co-benefit narratives that align with buyer values
- Standardize data disclosure practices to reduce due diligence friction
Buyers & investors:
- Work with trusted due diligence providers if internal expertise is limited
- Understand the barriers developers face and collaborate on risk-sharing approaches
- Engage with smaller, innovative developers alongside established players
Intermediaries:
- Aggregate demand from smaller buyers to broaden market participation
- Develop insurance products that address delivery and quality risks
- Facilitate knowledge sharing between buyers with different technology expertise
Policymakers:
- Create practical, actionable guidelines rather than theoretical frameworks
- Harmonize requirements across jurisdictions for multinational companies
- Develop mechanisms that protect past investments when standards evolve
How Sylvera can help
CDR project developers
We’ve adapted our Pre-Issuance solution specifically for the CDR market, to help CDR project developers:
- Prove integrity: Detailed integrity assessments evaluate carbon accounting, durability, additionality, and co-benefits across diverse CDR technologies, helping developers articulate their project's quality drivers in a market-accepted way
- Prove delivery: The delivery module tests project design alignment with evolving industry standards including SBTi, ISO, VCMI, and ICVCM guidelines, reducing delivery risks for both developers and their buyers.
- Prove value: The value module evaluates pathways to cost reduction and demonstrates routes to lower-priced credits, while assessing long-term viability.
- Market access: Comprehensive origination and transaction support through project-type overviews, assessment tools, and deep due diligence for offtake agreements and final investment decisions, helping developers build credibility and attract investment.
Buyers and investors
Our Pre-Issuance Solution helps buyers and investors assess CDR’s unique project quality and delivery risks, navigate technology complexity, and make informed procurement decisions:
- Project discovery: Early Stage Catalogue, project screenings, and assessment tools enable quick evaluation of quality, delivery, and value risks across different CDR project types, streamlining the origination process.
- Due diligence: Pre-Issuance Ratings provide comprehensive analysis through integrity, delivery, and value modules, offering deep assessment of carbon accounting, timeline projections, and scaling potential before major investment decisions.
- Ongoing transparency: Milestone delivery tracking and in-app dashboards support continuous monitoring from contract signing through first credit issuance, ensuring quality criteria are maintained throughout project implementation.
- Risk reduction: End-to-end lifecycle support reduces due diligence burden while providing the standardized assessment and transparency necessary for confident investment decisions in the evolving CDR market.
If you’re looking for support navigating the CDR landscape, we’d love to help. Book your Sylvera demo today.
Did you miss the webinar? You can watch the recording on-demand here.
