Africa, the ITMO Leader: How the Continent is Turning Article 6 Readiness Into Supply

Africa sat out much of the international carbon market activity that defined the Kyoto Protocol, watching other regions capture the bulk of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) demand and investment. That story is changing. 

Now, in the Paris Agreement era, African countries have moved quickly to build the legal frameworks, institutional capacity, and project pipeline behind a supply of Internationally Transferred Mitigation Outcomes (ITMOs). It means the continent is already among the most relevant in terms of ITMO supply, not just a promising one for the future. 

This post looks at what that progress looks like in practice, where the region still faces real challenges, and why getting Article 6 right in Africa matters for the credibility of the market as a whole.

Data in this post is powered by Sylvera's Article 6 & CORSIA Hub.

From Bystander to Builder

We are now firmly in the era of Article 6 implementation, but overall progress across the market still lacks ambition. That gap matters, because it's the difference between Article 6 delivering on its promise and airlines, governments, and buyers falling short of binding climate commitments. 

Of the around 300M potentially eligible credits for CORSIA Phase 1 issued to date, and another 200M+ likely to be issued by end of 2027, Sylvera's modeling shows only around 43 million have been tagged as CORSIA-eligible in their registry. To get there, credits must clear two hurdles: a Letter of Authorization (LoA) from the host country, and either a corresponding adjustment or qualifying insurance. That's just 19%–22% of the 193 million to 220 million tonnes of offsetting requirements Sylvera expects for CP1.

On the bilateral track, 124 Article 6.2 agreements or MOUs have been signed globally, yet only a handful of actual ITMO transfers have gone through so far — Thailand's transactions with Switzerland chief among them.

Against this backdrop, Africa's trajectory stands out. Having largely missed the opportunities of the Kyoto Protocol's Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) era, African countries and institutions are determined not to miss this one. Africa's CDM participation was minimal by any measure: UNFCCC figures put the continent's share of registered CDM projects at just over 2% of the global total, with just a handful of countries, in particular South Africa, accounting for most of that. 

Governments across the continent have moved proactively to stand up Article 6 governance structures, and that momentum is matched by geography: Africa holds enormous natural potential for carbon credit supply, from nature-based removals to renewable energy and clean cooking. Institutional progress combined with that resource base has already made the region a leading ITMO supplier — not just one for the future.

That progress has been reinforced by a wave of capacity-building work across the continent: regional alliances, dedicated regional workshops on CORSIA-eligible emissions units and Letters of Authorization, and partnerships aimed squarely at closing the data and readiness gap, including the Carbon Data Access Partnership (CaDAP) that Sylvera and UNDP launched in February 2025 to help accelerate Article 6 implementation across the region. On the ground, project developers have also partnered closely with governments, contributing directly to their readiness.

“Governments across the continent are working hard to develop appropriate systems for Article 6 implementation. They are building the system from the ground up, and best practice is already emerging. To scale, we need more financial support for Greenhouse Gas inventories and peer-to-peer learning” – Molly Brown, Director of Carbon Strategy, BURN

Already Delivering: Africa's ITMO Track Record

Sylvera's Article 6 & CORSIA Hub assesses each host country's Letter of Authorization (LoA) risk and corresponding adjustment (CA) risk. Many African countries are still building the foundations that lower these risks, as are countries in other regions. Yet a number of African countries are already moving into action, often ahead of what their LoA and CA risk profiles would suggest. That early momentum is what the numbers below show, across both CORSIA eligibility and Article 6 more broadly.

“Fragmentation across countries' Article 6 journeys is not a market failure, we see it as countries building frameworks suited to their own capacity and priorities. The mitigation potential in Africa has always been there and governments are now stepping up as partners to help unlock it. We see ourselves as partners; DelAgua has been working in Africa for over a decade, and the long term relationships we have built with host governments is exactly what enabled us to move quickly with LoA signing and supporting Enhanced Transparency Framework reporting. We believe that this close collaboration is more than a compliance exercise, but rather a shared investment and that shared investment is what builds the kind of trust the market needs; for host governments, for developers, and for the buyers who are looking for trusted supply." - Euan McDougall, Chief Executive Officer, DelAgua Group

Of the 124 signed Article 6.2 agreements or MOUs recorded globally — spanning 62 sellers and 11 buyers — African countries account for 34 (~27%). Ghana (5) leads all seller countries worldwide, followed by Zambia (4), Senegal (4), Morocco (4), and Kenya (4) with a total matched by only a handful of countries elsewhere, such as Indonesia.

The pattern repeats for Letters of Authorization. Of the 119 LoAs published (in the UNFCCC CARP, national registries, or carbon standard registries) globally for cooperative approaches or activities, African countries hold 80, and the three countries with the most are all African: Madagascar (44), Nigeria (9) and Rwanda (7), followed by Zimbabwe (4), Tanzania (4), and Ghana (3).

CORSIA eligibility tells the same story, though the headline project count needs a caveat. Many of the largest African entries are grouped programs, where dozens of Component Project Activities (CPAs) sit under a single Programme of Activities (PoA), which inflates the raw count.

Counted as distinct projects or programs rather than individual CPAs, Africa still leads clearly: of 25 distinct projects or programs globally, 17 (around 68%) are African, spanning Nigeria (7), Rwanda (4), Tanzania (2), Madagascar (1), Gambia (1), Malawi (1), and Sierra Leone (1).

Beyond the Headline Leaders

Several other countries are moving fast in ways the top-line rankings don't yet capture. They may not have published LoAs, but their progress on Article 6 frameworks, institutional arrangements, and registry infrastructure is putting them in a strong position for the next wave of supply. These advances aren't always perfect, but they send a strong signal to the market, helping unlock the investment and insurance needed to help bring new CORSIA supply online.

CASE STUDY: DRC: from blank slate to Article 6 framework

In September 2026, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) signed an ordinance-law that sets out the legal regime for its carbon market and brings Article 6 into national law. The law establishes the market's institutional architecture under the Carbon Market Regulatory Authority (ARMCA), regulates voluntary carbon market activity in the country, and creates a national carbon registry as the official system of record for mitigation outcomes and ITMOs. It builds on the registry work the government began in late 2025, and the registry is due to be presented at COP31 in November. The DRC is a useful case precisely because it is starting from close to zero institutionally, yet it is building Article 6 infrastructure fast, backed by the scale of the Congo Basin, the world's second-largest carbon sink.

"Our ambition is simple: every tonne authorised by the Democratic Republic of the Congo should be traceable, credibly accounted for, and of demonstrable benefit to Congolese communities. We have put in place the institutional steps to make that possible, from a clear authorisation pathway to the handling of corresponding adjustments. The interest we now see from international partners confirms that transparency, not volume alone, is what builds a market." – Rémy Kumakamba Ndambo, Secretary General, Ministry of Environment, Sustainable Development and New Climate Economy, Democratic Republic of the Congo

That clarity is what unlocks investment. When authorization and CAs follow a predictable process, developers and investors can price the risk, commit capital, and move projects toward issuance faster. 

"What makes the DRC a case worth watching is not the size of its potential, that has never been in doubt, but the clarity it is now building around it. The authorisation process is defined, the DNA is responsive, and corresponding adjustments are handled as part of a framework rather than case by case. For a developer, that predictability is worth as much as the credits themselves. It is why we were able to extend our authorised volume to 2.75 million tonnes within six months and why we expect first issuances from the programme this year." – Jakob Zenz, CEO & Founder, Econetix

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Leading Early, Learning Fast

Being early has put Africa in the spotlight. But being early also means encountering problems before anyone else has solved them.

Many African governments are new not just to Article 6, but to international carbon markets altogether. The Paris Agreement's Enhanced Transparency Framework (ETF) introduced reporting requirements that most developing countries never faced under the Kyoto Protocol, and those requirements are significantly more demanding. The next test comes soon: second Biennial Transparency Reports (BTR2s) are due by the end of December, and for many countries they will be a major hurdle. Capacity-building support and funding for national greenhouse gas (GHG) inventories, the backbone of these reports, remain well short of what is needed.

Given that, perfection from the outset isn't a realistic bar. The Article 6 Technical Expert Review (TER) analysis has flagged inconsistencies across recent rounds of initial reports (both on the buyer and the exporter sides), and corresponding adjustments reported to date have shown inaccuracies. But the priority right now is momentum, not perfection: the market needs to keep moving, and finance needs to keep flowing, and that means learning by doing rather than waiting for a flawless system that doesn't yet exist anywhere.

Sylvera's Article 6 & CORSIA Hub country assessments are built for exactly this — surfacing the LoA and corresponding-adjustment risk associated with host countries. Risk in early-stage markets is unavoidable; the goal shouldn't be to find a risk-free host country (it doesn’t exist)  but to understand and manage risk and move towards corrections. Being informed is the first step, and our assessments are designed to help countries, buyers, investors, and project developers get there — supporting African nations as they refine their frameworks, and giving international partners the confidence to engage.

The Road Ahead

Africa's ITMO story is still being written, but the direction is clear: a region that missed the last carbon market cycle is already leading this one. Sustained support from partners like UNDP, transparency from the likes of Sylvera's Article 6 & CORSIA Hub data, and continued government commitment will determine how far it extends — and how fast.

If you have a stake here, the practical challenge is knowing which countries, projects, and programmes are ready today, and which still carry LoA or corresponding-adjustment risk. 

That's exactly what Sylvera's Article 6 & CORSIA Hub is built to answer:

• Sovereign buyers and airlines facing CORSIA compliance obligations can track eligible supply against demand and see which host countries are positioned to deliver authorized credits on the timelines compliance deadlines require.
• Project developers can identify which African markets have the regulatory and institutional readiness to get a project through authorization and corresponding adjustment without unnecessary delay.
• Investors get sovereign risk scoring and LoA/CA tracking to underwrite host-country political and procedural risk before committing capital.
• Intermediaries — brokers, registries, and market makers — can use live, traceable data to advise clients with confidence instead of relying on public disclosures that lag the market by months.

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