CORSIA First Phase Scenario Modeling

Airlines face a January 2028 compliance deadline. Host countries control critical supply authorizations. Prices could range from $25-60+ per credit. Are you prepared for CORSIA's First Phase?

The fundamental challenge: A classic chicken-and-egg problem where supply waits for demand signals while demand waits for supply certainty.

With compliance deadlines approaching and limited supply emerging, Sylvera is developing a scenario modelling tool to simulate supply, demand and price under different market conditions. This report focuses on CORSIA to help:

Understand CORSIA EEU price outcomes under potential supply constraints

Explore the geographic landscape and host country authorization risks

Identify key factors to monitor in an uncertain regulatory landscape

Explore our CORSIA market simulation

This report features Sylvera's agent-based market modeling that analyzes:

4,000+ potentially eligible projects across approved registries

Article 6 readiness assessment for dozens of host countries

Airline-level compliance requirements across 129 participating jurisdictions

Six detailed scenarios from full compliance to no compliance

And, through exclusive roundtables with members of the CORSIA Technical Advisory Body, carbon crediting standards, government officials, and market participants, our survey uncovered which scenarios are considered more likely to materialize for CORSIA First Phase.

What's inside the report

📊 Executive summary & key findings
📈 Market drivers analysis
🎯 6 detailed scenarios with expert probability assessments
💰 Market data modeling results on demand, supply and pricing
🔮 Forward-looking market implications

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