Understanding Carbon Pricing: Spot, Off-take & Market Forecast Data

Rory Trevelyan Thomas and Aaron Tam hosted a demo exploring Sylvera’s market intelligence suite.

The session covered three features focused on carbon credit pricing: spot prices, off-take prices, and market forecasts - demonstrating how market participants can leverage this granular pricing data for strategic decision-making, all in one place.

Overview: 3 types of carbon credit pricing data

Buyers, sellers, and investors require three distinct categories of pricing information to navigate the carbon markets effectively:

1. Spot prices represent the immediate delivery market, where most historical transactions have occurred. These prices serve as essential reference points for confident trading decisions, whether participants are supplying or purchasing credits.

2. Off-take prices focus on the forward market, a relatively nascent segment that has only gained traction over the past 3-4 years. While this represents a much smaller data universe, it's potentially more relevant for companies planning 5-10 years ahead who need to secure stable volumes of high-quality credits.

3. Market Forecasts, designed for strategic long-term planning rather than immediate transactions. These forecasts answer critical questions that historical data cannot address: 

• How will future market size evolve for specific project types? 
• How would policy changes affect prices? 
• What demand will exist in 2030 for particular credit categories? 

Spot Prices: Project-specific prices and aggregate transactions

These estimates include confidence level labels - projects with fresh, high-frequency data receive ‘high confidence’ designations. The model demonstrates strong accuracy, with 90% of estimates lying within $1 of actual prices over the subsequent two weeks.

Users can efficiently navigate Sylvera’s 23,000-project Catalog using filters such as price, quality, estimated supply, project proponents, and compliance eligibility.

At the project level, this brings together two independent price views - Sylvera’s own estimates alongside Allied Offsets' assessments - giving users validation across 2 sources. Individual project pages display six-month price histories and confidence metrics.

The aggregate view of this price data enables analysis across the market. Users can analyze price distributions by project type, examining not just averages but quartile ranges that reveal the substantial variation within categories. 

This dataset proves particularly powerful for understanding which project attributes command premium pricing, for example ARR projects using specific methodologies, or compliance systems, drive prices. 

The platform segments prices by Sylvera ratings and co-benefit scores, demonstrating correlations between higher quality characteristics and price premiums. 

And all data is accessible via API for offline analysis and mark-to-market exercises.

Off-take prices: Forward-looking transactions

The off-take tracker addresses a critical gap in market transparency for forward-looking transactions. The database captures 200 individual off-takes representing diverse deal structures across both durable CDR and nature-based solutions.

The dashboard provides multiple analytical lenses. A median price table offers starting points for different project types, with substantial variation existing within each category. The bubble chart visualization plots individual off-takes, allowing users to quickly assess price spreads - for instance, hovering over a specific bubble reveals deals like the Shopify-Pachama transaction at $75 per ton for 45,000 tons. 

This granular view helps users understand how cost structures, project characteristics, and buyer willingness to pay drive price differences even within seemingly similar project categories.

For project developers seeking to identify relevant buyers, or buyers looking to understand supplier landscapes, the platform breaks down major market participants and their transaction patterns. Clicking into Microsoft, for example, displays every individual off-take the company has signed, including volumes, project types, and suppliers. The database also tracks volumes by quarter and delivery date, plus planned capacity insights for technology-based CDR projects.

Market Forecasts: Agent-Based modeling for strategic planning

Carbon credit markets present unique challenges that have previously prevented sophisticated forecasting:

1. Carbon credit markets are deeply interlinked

2. Extreme price differentiation exists

3. Complex policy drivers shape demand

Sylvera’s Market Forecasts represent a fundamental breakthrough in carbon market analytics. Our agent-based modeling solves these problems by representing individual supply and demand sources rather than treating the market as an aggregate commodity. 

The model incorporates all 20,000 projects in its database as individual agents, each with distinct characteristics. Then it aggregates by industry sector for voluntary markets and by individual compliance scheme for regulated markets. 

This granular approach captures market dynamics that conventional models miss. For example, if CORSIA regulations change and that market is served by projects also supplying voluntary buyers, the model traces how CORSIA policy shifts ripple into voluntary market pricing. This interconnectedness defines real-world carbon markets.

Supply-side modeling distinguishes between known projects (on registries, currently issuing or pre-issuance) and future potential (new investments not yet registered)

Demand-side modeling examines four components: voluntary demand, CORSIA, domestic compliance schemes, and Article 6.

These forecasts are visible through three dashboard tabs. 

1. The scenario overview presents annual supply and demand charts split by project type, region, or demand source, initialized to one of three default scenarios - low, medium, or high demand.

2. Project Type tab enables detailed analysis with scenario comparison capabilities. Users select project types, and optionally filter by region. Charts show spot price ranges across scenarios, demand projections by source, annual issuance by region, and credit inventory representing cumulative unretired stock.

3. The User Guide tab documents the complete modeling approach with downloadable demand and supply assumptions. Users can examine the global emission scenarios driving voluntary demand projections, individual compliance scheme breakdowns, airline-by-airline CORSIA analysis, and Article 6 assumptions.

Sylvera’s Market Intelligence

Get the clearest, most actionable view of the carbon market.

Spot prices

Navigate current market pricing with confidence

Identify fair market value and optimize trading decisions with comprehensive real-time pricing intelligence across thousands of carbon credit projects.

• Access the market's most comprehensive pricing database – 300,000+ verified transactions from 40+ independent sources, including brokers, traders, exchanges, and Silvera's sourcing platform, updated daily with automated quality checks
• Get project-specific price estimates with validated accuracy – Machine learning model covering 8,000 projects across 20,000 vintages with confidence-level labels and 90% accuracy within $1 over two weeks
• Analyze price patterns and premium drivers – Filter aggregate statistics by project type, region, rating, methodology, and compliance eligibility to understand what attributes command higher prices, all accessible via API

Off-take prices

Secure forward supply with market-informed pricing

Benchmark forward contracts and identify strategic counterparties using the most comprehensive database of carbon credit off-take agreements.

• Track the forward market's largest transactions – 200 individual off-takes covering 200+ million tons through 2025 with near 100% coverage of publicly disclosed deals, updated fortnightly
• Visualize price ranges and identify comparable deals – Interactive bubble charts showing deal-level granularity with filters by project type, location, supplier, purchaser, and announcement date
• Map buyer and seller landscapes – Drill down into major market participants like Microsoft to see every off-take signed, including volumes, project types, suppliers, quarterly trends, and planned CDR capacity

Market Forecasts

Plan strategically with scenario-based price projections

Make informed long-term investment and procurement decisions using the industry's first agent-based model for carbon credit markets.

• Model complex market dynamics with unprecedented accuracy – 20,000+ projects represented as individual agents interacting across voluntary, CORSIA, domestic compliance, and Article 6 demand segments to capture real-world market interlinkages
• Compare scenarios and assess policy impacts – Analyze low, medium, and high demand scenarios showing price ranges (median, upper, lower bounds), supply projections, and demand forecasts by project type and region through 2035
• Understand assumptions and customize analysis – Access transparent methodology documentation with downloadable supply-demand assumptions, issuance breakdowns (existing projects, pre-issuance pipeline, simulated future supply), and marginal cost curves

Request a demo to explore our comprehensive market intelligence suite.