IFM Carbon Project Quality in 2026: What matters to the market

June 30, 2026
3
min read

Table of contents

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Summary

Improved Forest Management (IFM) has become one of the most significant and scrutinised project types in the carbon market. 

By changing how existing forests are managed - extending harvest rotations, reducing logging intensity, restoring degraded stands - IFM projects can meaningfully increase carbon storage while keeping working forests working. 

Unlike planting new trees or stopping deforestation entirely, IFM operates within commercial forestry landscapes, making it scalable in ways that few other nature-based approaches can match.

IFM credit issuances have doubled since 2022, and have accounted for 61% of nature-based issuances so far in 2026. North America leads in quality supply, with the majority of its rated issuances achieving investment-grade (BBB+) Sylvera ratings, supported by an average credit price of around $16, among the highest of any project type. 

As CORSIA Phase 1 compliance approaches, IFM's eligibility profile is another tailwind, as it features prominently in the growing wave of CORSIA-eligible supply that now represents close to half of all new issuances.

But supply growth alone doesn't tell the full story. Legacy IFM has long carried integrity concerns - around baseline inflation, weak additionality, and leakage. Buyers operating under tightening standards (CSRD, SBTi, ICVCM's Core Carbon Principles) are applying far greater scrutiny than they once did. 

Next-generation methodologies like Verra's VM0045 and ACR IFM v2.1 are raising the floor, and Sylvera's updated IFM framework acknowledges these recent moves in the sector.

What's new in Sylvera’s updated IFM framework?

Download the IFM Ratings Framework V2.0 here

1. Carbon

The most significant update to the carbon pillar is the integration of Sylvera's proprietary Biomass Atlas - a dataset that enables direct comparison of project-reported carbon stock changes against independently observed changes in woody biomass within the project boundary. Biomass growth and biomass loss are both assessed, with uncertainty quantified at the project level by combining sampling uncertainty and residual pixel-level prediction errors.

Rather than relying on a single baseline model, the framework compares reported baselines against a plausibility range of independently observed biomass loss across multiple appropriate proxy areas, a holistic approach that accounts for data and model uncertainty while providing a fairer reflection of genuine over-crediting risk.

2. Additionality

The additionality update introduces meaningful differentiation between IFM project types. Sylvera's framework now distinguishes between avoided-logging projects - where additionality hinges on demonstrating that the baseline harvest scenario was likely to occur - and removals-only projects, where the bar shifts to demonstrating a clear behaviour change that can be linked to increasing carbon stocks. 

The key upgrade is the move from a qualitative activity-change assessment to an IRR-based financial additionality test. Where a financial model is available, Sylvera compares the project's internal rate of return both with and without carbon revenue against an appropriate hurdle rate, testing whether project activities are only viable with carbon finance rather than simply asserting it.

3. Permanence

For IFM, permanence risk is grounded in what can actually be observed, not just modelled. Natural risk assessment - covering fire, storm, drought, pest, and flood - is now cross-validated using Biomass Atlas data to confirm the extent of any reported carbon stock reversals and to identify unreported losses. Anthropogenic risk is assessed across project team experience and capacity, country-level geopolitical context, land tenure, and design complexity. 

The overall approach is scenario-based: starting from whether reversals have occurred and whether they are significant and mitigated, the framework maps a path to a risk score that reflects the real-world durability of the project's carbon stocks.

4. Safeguarding & co-benefits

The updated co-benefits pillar introduces community safeguarding requirements aligned with the latest NBS frameworks, evaluating seven themes - including community engagement, benefit sharing, human rights, labour rights, land rights, grievance redress, and gender equality - based on whether disclosed mitigations are genuine and sufficient, not simply present. 

Biodiversity assessment incorporates IUCN Red List data, Key Biodiversity Area overlaps, and species threat abatement potential to identify where IFM activities carry the greatest ecological significance. SDG contributions are now mapped to verifiable project activities, consistent with the evidence-based approach Sylvera has applied across its updated NBS frameworks.

Why it matters now

IFM supply is growing, compliance demand is accelerating, and buyer expectations - driven by CSRD, SBTi V2, and the ICVCM's CCP framework - are rising in parallel. That combination makes independent, rigorous assessment more important than ever. A credit that passes registry standards but falls short on baseline plausibility, or claims additionality without a credible financial case, carries real risk for the buyers who hold it.

Sylvera's updated IFM framework is designed to cut through that noise - providing buyers with a transparent, data-grounded view of where projects stand, and giving developers a clearer benchmark to work toward.

Download the IFM Ratings Framework V2.0 here

IFM Carbon Project Ratings FAQs

Why has Improved Forest Management (IFM) become significant in carbon markets?

IFM credit issuances have doubled since 2022, and have accounted for 61% of nature-based issuances so far in 2026. North America leads in quality supply, with the majority of its rated issuances achieving investment-grade (BBB+) Sylvera ratings, supported by an average credit price of around $16, among the highest of any project type.

What integrity concerns have historically affected IFM carbon credits?

Legacy IFM has long carried integrity concerns around baseline inflation, weak additionality, and leakage. Buyers operating under tightening standards including CSRD, SBTi, and ICVCM's Core Carbon Principles are applying far greater scrutiny than they once did. A credit that passes registry standards but falls short on baseline plausibility, or claims additionality without a credible financial case, carries real risk for buyers who hold it. Next-generation methodologies like Verra's VM0045 and ACR IFM v2.1 are raising the floor in response to these concerns, with Sylvera's updated IFM framework acknowledging these recent moves in the sector.

How does the updated framework test additionality for IFM projects?

The additionality update introduces meaningful differentiation between IFM project types, distinguishing between avoided-logging projects (where additionality hinges on demonstrating the baseline harvest scenario was likely to occur) and removals-only projects (where the bar shifts to demonstrating clear behaviour change linked to increasing carbon stocks). The key upgrade is the move from a qualitative activity-change assessment to an IRR-based financial additionality test. Where a financial model is available, Sylvera compares the project's internal rate of return both with and without carbon revenue against an appropriate hurdle rate, testing whether project activities are only viable with carbon finance rather than simply asserting it.

How does Sylvera assess permanence risk for IFM projects?

For IFM, permanence risk is grounded in what can actually be observed, not just modelled. Natural risk assessment—covering fire, storm, drought, pest, and flood—is now cross-validated using Biomass Atlas data to confirm the extent of any reported carbon stock reversals and identify unreported losses. Anthropogenic risk is assessed across project team experience and capacity, country-level geopolitical context, land tenure, and design complexity. The overall approach is scenario-based, starting from whether reversals have occurred and whether they are significant and mitigated, mapping a path to a risk score reflecting the real-world durability of the project's carbon stocks.

What does the updated co-benefits and safeguarding assessment cover?

The updated co-benefits pillar introduces community safeguarding requirements aligned with the latest NBS frameworks, evaluating seven themes including community engagement, benefit sharing, human rights, labour rights, land rights, grievance redress, and gender equality—based on whether disclosed mitigations are genuine and sufficient, not simply present. Biodiversity assessment incorporates IUCN Red List data, Key Biodiversity Area overlaps, and species threat abatement potential to identify where IFM activities carry the greatest ecological significance. SDG contributions are now mapped to verifiable project activities, consistent with the evidence-based approach Sylvera has applied across its updated NBS frameworks.

About the author

Rebecca Railton
Carbon Analyst
Stuart Stokeld
Ratings Lead

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