“Over the years we’ve invested significantly in our field data team - focusing on producing trusted ratings. While this ensures the accuracy of our Ratings, it doesn’t allow the scale across the thousands of projects that buyers are considering.”
For more information on carbon credit procurement trends, read our "Key Takeaways for 2025" article. We share five, data-backed tips to improve your procurement strategy.
One more thing: Connect to Supply customers also get access to the rest of Sylvera's tools. That means you can easily see project ratings and evaluate an individual project's strengths, procure quality carbon credits, and even monitor project activity (particularly if you’ve invested at the pre-issuance stage.)
Book a free demo of Sylvera to see our platform's procurement and reporting features in action.
Why CORSIA matters beyond aviation
CORSIA is the first sector-wide mandatory carbon offsetting programme under international law. It requires airlines operating international routes to offset the growth in their emissions above 2019 baseline levels. But its implications extend well beyond airlines.
For professional services firms, investment banks, and any corporate buyer with a carbon strategy touching aviation or international supply chains, CORSIA matters because it is creating the first large-scale, mandatory demand signal for a specific, defined category of carbon credit: the Eligible Emissions Unit (EEU). That demand signal has supply implications that affect the broader voluntary carbon market, and a pricing signal that will move as the January 2028 deadline approaches.
Understanding what's happening in the CORSIA market right now is, increasingly, essential context for any sophisticated carbon buyer.
The supply picture: growing, but far from adequate
Supply of fully eligible EEUs has grown significantly. Credits across Verra, Gold Standard, and ART TREES registries now total approximately 32.7 million, more than double the 15.8 million available in Q1 2025.
Sylvera's analysis of the potential ITMO supply pipeline shows that while some 321 million post-2020 vintage credits could theoretically be CORSIA-eligible based on methodology, the path from potentially eligible to fully authorised with a Corresponding Adjustment is where the bottleneck sits. Credits that have actually obtained a Letter of Approval (LoA) or Corresponding Adjustment (the gold standard for CORSIA compliance) currently total around 36 million, concentrated heavily in a small number of countries and project types: Guyana's JREDD+ programme, cookstove projects in Rwanda, Malawi, and Laos account for the bulk.
The authorisation bottleneck is the major structural issue facing the market. Host country sign-off under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement requires institutional capacity, strategic clarity, and reporting quality that many host governments are still developing.
Four large uncertainties drive supply risk:
How much institutional capacity determines whether a country issues LoAs
Whether a country has a clear Article 6 strategy in place
The quality of national reporting and inventory systems
The risk that countries over-commit ITMOs and are forced to revise or revoke existing authorisations.
KOKO Networks, a major cookstove developer, became a notable casualty of this dynamic in Q1 2026 when its LoA situation unravelled, removing a material volume of previously-counted eligible supply from the market.
A further complicating factor: recent EU proposals could restrict approximately 95% of existing supply for EU-based airlines, if implemented as drafted. Regulatory dynamics are complex, and still moving.
The demand picture: large, uncertain, and time-sensitive
Sylvera's analysis puts total demand for Corresponding Adjustment-backed credits between now and 2030 at approximately 969 million credits, of which CORSIA accounts for roughly 69%, or 666 million. Phase 1 alone (2024–2026) represents an offsetting requirement of 177 million credits at the high end of current scenarios.
Early compliance activity has begun. Japan Airlines retired 235,000 EEUs in Q1 2026, a signal that at least some airlines are moving early. Guyana's government confirmed that 19 airlines have purchased credits from its programme, though volumes remain undisclosed.
One issue in terms of near-term demand is the Iran conflict. The immediate impact on CORSIA was two-directional: flights rerouting around closed airspace increased per-flight emissions and therefore offsetting obligations. And simultaneously, rising jet fuel prices are suppressing traffic volumes and ticket demand, reducing total emissions and therefore total obligation. The net effect depends heavily on how long the conflict persists.
A third dynamic is at play here also: airlines directly affected by the conflict - particularly those in the Middle East - are likely to defer CORSIA procurement decisions while managing more immediate operational pressures.
Given the compliance deadline is now less than 2 years away, even a multi-month delay in purchasing decisions has market implications.
What CORSIA means for buyers in 2026: 3 strategic questions
1. Where is your view of CORSIA-eligible supply coming from, and how reliable is it?
Most organisations tracking CORSIA are working from static reports, broker conversations, or ICAO bulletins. None of these give real-time visibility into LoA status, programme eligibility by phase, or the pipeline of credits moving from potentially eligible to fully authorised. The difference between what's in the pipeline and what's actually eligible, with a Corresponding Adjustment in place, is currently a factor of roughly 10. Acting on the wrong number is a risk.
2. How are you modelling the SAF vs. LCAF vs. offsets trade-off?
For airlines, this is the central abatement strategy question. Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) and Lower Carbon Aviation Fuel (LCAF) each reduce the gross emissions baseline before CORSIA obligations are calculated. Offsets cover residual obligation after SAF/LCAF deployment. The trade-off between them depends on SAF availability and pricing, LCAF methodology eligibility, CORSIA-eligible credit pricing, and your specific route network and emission profile. Without a live, integrated model of all three, the abatement strategy is guesswork.
3. How is sovereign delivery risk factored into your decisions?
A credit that is CORSIA-eligible today may not be eligible at the point of compliance retirement if its host country's LoA situation changes. Sovereign delivery risk - the risk that a host government revises, revokes, or fails to convert a Letter of Approval into a Corresponding Adjustment - is now the primary credit-level risk for CORSIA buyers. It requires a structured risk framework, which needs to be refreshed as host-country situations evolve.
Two examples of getting this CORSIA strategy right
An international airline is building its Phase 1 compliance strategy. Its trading desk has been using broker estimates for CORSIA-eligible supply and a single-point price forecast. After mapping its actual route network against emissions baselines, the team discovers its obligation is 15% higher than originally modelled — driven by a higher share of long-haul routes than the simplified model captured. Using scenario analysis across low, medium, and high conflict-duration assumptions, the team stress-tests its offtake commitments and identifies that its current contracted supply is insufficient under the medium scenario. It secures additional cover from a Guyana JREDD+ programme with an existing Corresponding Adjustment (one of the few programmes with a clean LoA pipeline) before the price moves on tightening supply.
A global investment bank's carbon trading desk has been building CORSIA positions but struggling to justify them to the internal risk team. The challenge: modelling a market where key variables - host country LoA status, EU airline eligibility rules, conflict-driven demand fluctuations - are all moving simultaneously. By building a sovereign risk scoring framework across host countries and running scenario analysis on supply and demand under different policy and geopolitical pathways, the desk is able to present a structured, stress-tested thesis rather than a directional bet. Risk approval follows. The team deploys into the market ahead of what it models as a narrowing supply window.
How Sylvera helps
Sylvera consolidates the data, forecasts, sovereign risk analysis, and policy expertise needed to navigate this market. We track CORSIA-eligible supply across every eligible programme in real-time - covering LoA status, methodology approvals, and phase eligibility - so buyers know the difference between the theoretical supply universe and what's actually available. Demand scenarios under multiple policy and geopolitical pathways give airlines and corporate buyers a live, defensible view of their obligation. Sovereign risk scoring gives structured visibility into the delivery risk sitting inside every offtake position.
Market Intelligence provides live CORSIA-eligible spot and forward pricing, retirement pattern data across 40,000+ companies, and the market commentary needed to stay current as the regulatory perimeter shifts.
Policy expertise, including access to Sylvera's policy team, which includes a member of the CORSIA Technical Advisory Body, is built into the subscription, not sold separately. In a market where the rules are still being written, that proximity to the standard-setting process is a genuine edge.
Want to understand your CORSIA exposure and the supply picture that will shape your options? Get your Sylvera CORSIA demo here.
